We Are Now Net Fuel Exporters, But 1.5m bpd Refinery Appetite Will Swallow Our 1.68m bpd Output — IPPG Chair. Adegbite Falade
CHIGOZIE AMADI
Nigeria has officially ended decades of fuel import dependence and become a net exporter of petroleum products, but the country now faces a more dangerous question: where will the crude to feed its own refineries come from?
That was the blunt warning from the Chairman of the Independent Petroleum Producers Group, Adegbite Falade, who delivered the keynote address at the 3rd Nigeria Oil Refining Summit in Lagos on Monday.
“For over six decades, Nigeria exported crude oil and imported the products refined from it. With every cargo, we exported jobs, value, and foreign exchange. I dare say that era is ending,” Falade told regulators, refiners, diplomats and investors.
He commended the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, CORAN, led by Mr. Momoh Oyarekhua, for building NORS into a credible voice in just three years.In 2024, the summit theme “Making Nigeria a Net Exporter of Petroleum Products” was a statement of intent. “Today, it is a fact,” he said.
Falade credited coherent, reform-driven policies — removal of petrol subsidy, market-based forex, Naira-for-Crude initiative and implementation of the PIA — for creating market signals that attracted private capital.
He singled out Alhaji Aliko Dangote, whose 650,000-barrels-per-day refinery “has fundamentally transformed our energy landscape,” a feat underscored by the landmark IPO opened earlier this month.”The focus of this summit is of strategic importance… Can Nigeria Reliably Feed Its Refineries? From where I stand, the answer is equally direct: Geologically, yes. Technically, yes. Commercially and Logistically — not yet there and certainly not by regulation alone,” Falade declared.
Presenting hard numbers, he said domestic refineries could require more than 1.5 million bpd in the medium term, depending on rehabilitation, expansion and new modular refineries. That demand is almost equal to Nigeria’s entire current liquids output of 1.68 million bpd as of August 2026, according to NUPRC data.
“Compared to a few years ago, the recovery in production is encouraging, but it is not yet sufficient to declare victory,” he warned, listing the competing pressures on that narrow margin: export commitments, government revenue, crude-backed loans, JV partner offtake, outages, OPEC quotas, grade mismatches and terminal disruptions
.He noted Nigeria’s reserves base is not the problem — 37.01 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate and 215.19 TCF of gas as of January 1, 2026, according to NUPRC. “The challenge is not whether hydrocarbons exist underground. It is whether we can convert reserves into production, production into secure supply, and secure supply into domestic refining competitiveness.
“Falade commended progress on the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation, DCSO, under Section 109 of the PIA, with compliance rising from 41% in Q1 2026 to 97.4% in Q2 2026. He said IPPG’s 34 indigenous companies now account for more than half of national production, meaning the feedstock for refining “will increasingly flow from our fields.
“He outlined four priorities: Grow production: “Nigeria cannot refine barrels that are not produced. The answer is not to redistribute a limited pool, but to create more barrels.” Protect evacuation: Sustain gains against crude theft and build dedicated evacuation corridors, pipelines, storage, jetties and marine logistics. Build a true domestic crude market: Allow aggregation, grade blending, transparent swaps and substitution. “A barrel is not simply a barrel. A refinery requires the right grade, right volume, right quality, right location, right time and right commercial terms.”. Become regional refining hub: Leverage resource base and geography to become Africa’s energy hub.”
Let us move from annual allocation exercises to rolling supply planning; from mandates to bankable contracts; from capacity announcements to verified throughput; from opaque discounts to transparent market pricing,” he urged.
“The upstream industry stands ready. We ask government, regulators, refiners, financiers and infrastructure operators to join us in creating a domestic crude market that is secure, transparent, competitive and investible.”
“If we do that, Nigeria will not merely feed its refineries — Nigeria will build a fully integrated petroleum economy in which every barrel is directed to its highest national and commercial value.”
